After six years of punishing drought that left millions of Mexicans facing water shortages, cracked farmland, and dwindling reservoirs, the tide is finally turning. Scientists at Mexico's National Water Commission report the country is on track to emerge from its long drought by the end of this rainy season — and the recovery numbers are striking.
As of mid-June 2026, just 2.4% of Mexican territory remains classified as experiencing drought (D1 to D4 on the national drought monitor scale). That is a dramatic turnaround from just one year earlier, when nearly half the country — 46.5% of its territory, or 596 municipalities — was classified as dry or in drought.
What Changed: A Wetter-Than-Normal Rainy Season
The shift is largely driven by abundant rainfall tied to El Niño conditions, bringing moisture from the dry northern states like Chihuahua and Sonora all the way down to the humid forests of the south.
Dante Sinohé Hernández Padrón, a researcher with Mexico's National Water Commission (Conagua), announced the findings at the 40th Climate Perspectives Forum, reporting a 94% recovery from existing droughts across the country. Reservoirs that had fallen to dangerously low levels are refilling, rivers are running again, and agricultural regions are seeing relief they have not experienced since before the drought began.
The only area still experiencing severe drought is a narrow strip of Chihuahua desert along the US border — a region of extreme aridity that even normal rainy seasons rarely penetrate fully.
A Crisis That Touched Millions
The drought that is now receding was no minor inconvenience. At its worst, it disrupted water supplies for major cities including Monterrey, where residents faced severe rationing in 2022. Agricultural losses ran into the billions of pesos. Wildlife habitats dried up, and the Rio Grande shrank to historically low levels, affecting communities on both sides of the border.
Mexico's drought rating system runs from D0 (abnormally dry) to D5 (exceptional drought). At the peak of recent dry conditions, significant portions of northern Mexico were rated D2 through D4 — well into the severe and extreme drought categories.
Recovery and Resilience
Experts are celebrating the recovery while urging long-term thinking. A single good rainy season does not erase the underlying vulnerabilities that allowed the drought to become so severe. Groundwater aquifers, which were over-pumped during the dry years, take years or even decades to fully recharge. Soil health also takes time to recover, and climate science suggests northern Mexico will face more frequent dry periods in coming decades.
Still, the 2026 rainy season offers a genuine window of recovery — and an opportunity to invest in the water management infrastructure, conservation practices, and agricultural resilience that can help Mexico weather future droughts more effectively.
Across the country, the improvement is already visible. Reservoir levels are climbing. Crops are growing where the ground was cracked and barren. And millions of Mexicans — farmers, families, and city residents alike — are experiencing the simple, profound relief of having enough water again.
For Mexico, the long drought is almost over. And this time, the rains came.
