The numbers are striking enough to warrant a second read.

In the first half of 2026, the murder rate across a sample of 36 large American cities fell 18% compared to the same period last year, according to a new mid-year analysis from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ). That alone would be notable. But the broader picture is even more remarkable.

The national homicide rate is now likely at its lowest level since at least 1900 — a benchmark the CCJ first anticipated at year-end 2025 and that the latest data appear to confirm.

Four crimes down by half or more

Homicide is not the only crime that has collapsed from its recent peak. The CCJ's mid-year 2026 report identifies four offense categories that have each fallen more than 50% from their recent highs:

  • Homicide: 51% lower in the first half of 2026 than the first half of 2022, when post-pandemic violence peaked
  • Carjacking: 73% lower than its 2023 peak, and 47% lower than the same period last year
  • Residential burglary: 56% lower than in 2018
  • Motor vehicle theft: 51% lower than its peak, and 20% lower year over year

Robbery overall fell 17% compared to 2025. Gun assaults dropped 6%. The data comes from 36 cities that have consistently published detailed monthly crime statistics — a relatively small but broadly representative sample.

In the 30 cities providing homicide data, there were 215 fewer murders in the first half of 2026 than in the first half of 2025.

Why is this happening?

The honest answer, researchers say, is that nobody fully knows. Crime trends of this scale rarely have a single cause.

"Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map, in cities with different political leadership, housing and economic conditions, policing and prosecution strategies, violence reduction models, and levels of federal enforcement activity," said Adam Gelb, the CCJ's president.

"Local policies and programmes surely matter, but the striking consistency of the decline suggests that macro-level forces are exerting enormous influence as well."

Researchers and practitioners have pointed to a range of possible influences: changes in criminal justice operations and strategies, technological advances, and broad shifts in society and culture. Some note that the decline began in the second half of 2022 — well before most federal enforcement initiatives took effect — and has been sustained regardless of which party controls local government.

Not every trend is positive

The CCJ report is careful to note the exceptions. Shoplifting was 4% higher in the first half of 2026 than in 2025. Domestic violence incidents rose 8%. Drug offenses climbed 12%. Sexual assault reports were 3% higher.

These are important caveats. The overall story of falling crime is real, but it is not a uniform one.

A generation-low

For those old enough to remember the crime waves of the 1980s and 1990s — or for anyone who has tracked American cities over the past few decades — the scope of the current decline is difficult to fully absorb.

A homicide rate likely lower than any since 1900. Carjacking down nearly three-quarters from its peak. Residential burglary at levels not seen in modern history.

The CCJ has been tracking crime trends since July 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic and nationwide unrest triggered a historic spike in violence. The data since then have told the story of a sharp rise — and an even sharper fall.

The current numbers suggest that fall is still underway.